Turkey Is Up 8.4%. Butter Is Down 10.3%. Shop Thanksgiving in Two Halves.
Thanksgiving is Thursday, November 26. The September Consumer Price Index, released October 14, already shows how the dinner splits: the CPI category that holds turkey is up 8.4% over the past year, while butter is down 10.3% and eggs are down 20.6%. Grocery prices overall rose 1.8%.
The bird costs more and the baking costs less. That's a reason to shop the two halves of the meal on different schedules.
The Thanksgiving aisles, September 2026
Change from September 2025 to September 2026, not seasonally adjusted (BLS CPI, Table 2):
| Item | 12-month change |
|---|---|
| Other uncooked poultry, including turkey | +8.4% |
| Apples | +7.5% |
| Coffee | +7.1% |
| Ham | +4.0% |
| Canned vegetables | +3.4% |
| Fresh biscuits, rolls, muffins | +2.3% |
| Frozen and refrigerated bakery, including pies | +1.3% |
| Potatoes | +1.1% |
| Fresh whole chicken | +0.6% |
| Sugar and sugar substitutes | -1.0% |
| Flour and prepared flour mixes | -1.1% |
| Cheese | -3.0% |
| Butter | -10.3% |
| Eggs | -20.6% |
| Food at home (overall) | +1.8% |
A note on that top line: BLS doesn't publish a turkey-only index. The 8.4% covers uncooked poultry other than chicken, and turkey is the main thing in it. Chicken overall is down 0.6%.
Why turkey is up and butter is down
Turkey. USDA's October 16 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook says wholesale frozen whole hen turkeys averaged 184 cents a pound for the week ending October 2. USDA raised its fourth-quarter forecast to 175 cents, up from 172.2 cents in the fourth quarter of 2025, pointing to steady demand heading into the fall buying season. A shortage isn't the story: USDA actually revised 2026 turkey production up. Bird flu is back in commercial flocks, though, with 11 cases in September across Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota affecting 544,900 birds. Worth watching, not worth panic-buying over.
Butter and eggs. The same report cut USDA's 2026 wholesale butter forecast to $1.56 a pound, citing ample supplies of butter and cheese. Wholesale eggs in New York averaged 82.62 cents a dozen in September, down $1.48 from September 2025.
At the shelf, BLS average prices show the same thing. A pound of salted Grade AA butter averaged $3.96 in September 2026, against $4.79 a year earlier. A dozen Grade A large eggs averaged $2.27, against $3.49.
What it means for your dinner budget
The baking half of the meal is where the relief sits. At those average prices, three pounds of butter costs about $2.49 less than it did last September, and two dozen eggs about $2.44 less. Flour and sugar are each about 1% cheaper too.
The bird goes the other way. As an example: if your turkey cost $30 last year, an 8.4% rise puts it near $32.50. In that example, the butter and egg savings more than cover the difference.
Your menu decides which way it tips. Butter-heavy sides and from-scratch pie may come in under last year. Add a ham, an apple pie, and an afternoon pot of coffee, and the bill lands higher than you remember.
The move: shop the two halves on different schedules
Thanksgiving week stacks everything into one trip, the worst week to find out what anything costs. Split it.
- Buy the cheap half now. Butter, flour, sugar, and the canned and boxed staples keep. Add a pound of butter and a bag of flour to each of your next two or three regular trips. Butter freezes well, so this week's price can be your November 25 price.
- Hold the turkey for the ads. With wholesale prices high, the store's feature price is the number that matters. Check your store's weekly ad each week in November and buy when the price per pound beats what you paid last year. If you still have that receipt, write the per-pound price down now.
- Price the swap before you commit. If you're feeding four to six, compare a whole turkey against two whole chickens. Whole chicken averaged $2.06 a pound in September, flat on the year.
- Give the climbing extras their own line. Apples, ham, and coffee are up 4% to 7.5%. Put them on the list with a price instead of letting them ride along.
The takeaway: over the next three weeks, pick up butter, flour, and sugar on trips you were already making, while they cost less than last year. Then give the turkey one target, last year's price per pound, and buy the week an ad beats it.